Giving and Receiving: Exploring the Predictive Causality between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates

We study the dynamic connectedness and predictive causality between oil prices and exchange rates. Our sample includes six important oil‐producing and six net importing countries. Our results show that for the first set of countries, oil prices are net spillover receivers from exchange rate markets. Similarly, there is evidence of bidirectional Granger causality, which is detected for longer time periods from these countries’ exchange rates to oil prices. In contrast, for the second set of countries, oil prices are net spillover transmitters, and the causality is stronger from oil prices to exchange rates, mainly in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. However, even for this group of countries, there are long periods of time for which exchange‐rate markets transmit spillovers to oil markets. Overall, oil markets are net receivers of shocks during most of the sample period, thus providing evidence in favor of the oil‐financialization hypothesis.

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