We study the short-term effects of differential exposure to COVID-19 on educational outcomes in Guatemala. The government adopted a warning index to classify municipalities by cases and infection rates in 2020. Using administrative panel data for all students in Guatemala, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy that leverages municipal differences over time in the warning index to estimate the effects of the pandemic on dropout, promotion, and school switching in 2021 and 2022. Results show that municipalities with a higher warning index had significantly larger dropout, lower promotion rates, and a greater share of students switching from private to public schools.
