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An Estimation of the Costs and Welfare Benefits of the New Colombian Health Insurance Plan [Uma estimação do custo e mudanças em bem-estar dos Colombianos com o novo plano de benefícios em saúde] [Una estimación del costo y cambios en el bienestar de los Colombianos con el nuevo plan de beneficios en salud]

Publicado en

  • Revista de Economía del Rosario

Resumen

  • This article estimates the expected cost and welfare of the new benefits plan in Colombian public health care plan. The analysis is based on the idea that by reducing barriers to claims for services that are currently outside of the Mandatory Health Plan (POS, Plan Obligatorio de Salud), here called non-POS, there will be recomposition of the demand of POS and non-POS health services. The methodological approach used is the estimation is a discrete choice model that, based on the observed choices of claims and consumption of POS and non-POS services at the individual level, enables an estimation of the revealed preferences of individuals and a prediction of the new demand after the health reform. Since the model is estimated for each risk group (age, sex, and chronic diseases), it is possible to estimate the changes in cost and welfare by risk group. The results show that on average the expected increase in the cost of the new benefits plan is 16% compared to the current cost (POS plus non-POS), with a standard deviation of 7,10% among risk groups. However, consumer surplus is on average of 5,73 times greater than the increase in spending. This suggests that the new plan is very effective in generating consumer surplus per additional spending unit. The result also identifies the risk groups that will cost the most, and for which the increase in well-being per additional spending unit will be the highest. Unlike a standard discrete choice model, the analysis conducted presents additional complications, as it is not possible to observe the utility of individuals for all choice alternatives (e.g., spending on non-POS services for individuals who choose only POS services is not observed). It is thus necessary to estimate these values. © Revista de Economía del Rosario.

fecha de publicación

  • 2014

Líneas de investigación

  • Colombian Health Reform
  • Discrete Choice Models
  • New Benefits Plan

Página inicial

  • 101

Última página

  • 116

Volumen

  • 17

Issue

  • 2