Testing for exuberance in house prices using data sampled at different frequencies

Serie

• Working Paper series Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis

Resumen

• We undertake Monte Carlo simulation experiments to examine the effect of changing the frequency of observations and the data span on the Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015) Generalised Supremum ADF (GSADF) test for explosive behaviour via Monte Carlo simulations. We find that when a series is characterised by multiple bubbles (periodically collapsing), decreasing the frequency of observations is associated with profound power losses for the test. We illustrate the effects of temporal aggregation by examining two real house price data bases, namely the S&P Case-Shiller real house prices and the international real house price indices available at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

autores

• Otero, Jesús
• Panagiotidis, Theodore
• Papapanagiotou, Georgios

fecha de publicación

• 2021

Área temática

• C15 - Métodos de simulación estadística: generalidades
• C22 - Modelos de series temporales; Regresiones cuantiles dinámicas; Modelos dinámicos de tratamiento; procesos de difusión

Enfoque geográfico

• Europe  Continent
• Monte Carlo  Country

Líneas de investigación

• Exuberant/explosive behaviour
• Monte Carlo
• bubbles
• house prices

Issue

• 21-13