The Determinants of UN Interventions. Are There Regional Preferences?

What leads the United Nations Security Council to intervene in one conflict, but remain inactive in others of similar magnitude and cruelty? This paper analyzes all registered 178 internal and internationalized internal conflicts since 1945, with the goal to unveil what determines the probability of a UN intervention. Our main focus lies on the question whether the geographical proximity to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) has an effect on the probability of intervention. Our results suggest that the UN is substantially more likely to intervene in conflicts located in Europe. A more detailed look at distances revels that for every 1,000 kilometers of distance from France or the United Kingdom the probability of intervention decreases by about one third. Further, we find that UN intervention is significantly more likely to happen in smaller (less population), poorer (smaller GDP per capita), and less open economies (openness to international trade).

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