Modeling the Monetary Policy Reaction Function of the Colombian Central Bank

Serie

• Documentos de trabajo

Resumen

• This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyze the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behavior suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target rather than in reducing inflation excessively. The forecasting performance of the model, both within and beyond the estimation period, appears to be particularly good.

autores

• Otero, Jesús
• Ramírez, Manuel

fecha de publicación

• 2008-04

Área temática

• C32 - Modelos de series temporales; Regresiones cuantiles dinámicas; Modelos dinámicos de tratamiento; procesos de difusión; representación de espacios de estados
• C51 - Construcción de modelos y estimación
• E31 - Nivel de precios; Inflación; Deflación
• E58 - Bancos centrales y sus políticas
• O54 - Estudios económicos globales de países: América Latina; Caribe

Enfoque geográfico

• Colombia  Country
• South America  Continent

Líneas de investigación

• Central Bank Independence
• Colombia
• Monetary Policy Reaction Function
• Ordered Probit Model

Issue

• 4650