Despite various payment innovations, today, cash is still heavily used to pay for low-value purchases. This paper develops a simulation model to test whether standard implications of the theory on cash management and payment choices can explain the use of payment instruments by transaction size. In particular, using diary survey data from Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands, we test the assumption that cash is still the most e cient payment instrument, and the idea that people hold cash for precautionary reasons when facing uncertainty about their future purchases. The results of the simulations show that these two factors are signicant determinants of the high shares of low-value cash payments in Canada, France and Germany. Yet, they are not so crucial in the Netherlands, which exhibits a signicant share of low-value card transactions. We discuss how the dierences in payment markets across countries may explain the performance of the model.
