Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia

Serie

• Borradores de economía

Resumen

• This paper measures inflation persistence in Colombia for the period 1990-2010 and estimates the implied speed at which agents learn about the central bank’s inflation target. We estimate Erceg and Levin’s (2003) imperfect credibility model using Bayesian techniques and compare the posterior odds of this model against a conventional Neokeynesian model with ad-hoc price indexation. The odds are strongly in favor of the imperfect credibility model, suggesting that lack of credibility on the inflation target is an important source of inflation persistence. We use the model to compute the sacrifice ratio associated to 100 basis points inflation target shocks and find that it is (0.83%) in line with previous estimates for Colombia. We also find that the speed at which agents learn in the model has increased, albeit marginally, since the central bank implemented its inflation targeting strategy. Although during this period macroeconomic volatility has fallen, inflation persistence has remained roughly constant suggesting that so far, the impact of those credibility gains has been modest.

autores

• González-Gómez, Andrés
• Hamann, Franz

fecha de publicación

• 2011-05

Área temática

• C52 - Evaluación, contraste y selección de modelos

Enfoque geográfico

• Colombia  Country
• South America  Continent

Líneas de investigación

• Colombia
• Credibility
• Disinflation Costs
• Inflation
• Persistence

Identificador de objeto digital (DOI)

• https://doi.org/10.32468/be.658

Issue

• 658