The Maple Bubble: A History of Migration Among Canadian Provinces

We report evidence of the existence of house price bubbles in several Canadian provinces using a wealth of monthly data for over thirTY years. We apply bubble detection tests to both the price-to-rent ratio and a measure of the non-fundamental component of housing prices and find several episodes of housing price exuberance in various Canadian provinces. Furthermore, we show evidence of bubble migration and show that migration intensities are time-varying. In all cases an inverted U-shape is encountered, with a maximum point around 2012. Our results have important implications for the design of housing market policies.

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