Okun´s Law in Colombia: a Non Linear Cointegration

Serie

  • Borradores de economía

Resumen

  • This paper identifies Okun´s law in Colombia between 1984 and 2016 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as there is evidence of a long-term relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP. Results suggest that after a one percent increase in GDP, the unemployment rate is reduced by 0.45 percentage points in the long run (after sixteen quarters). In addition, we inspect for nonlinearities using a threshold cointegration model (TVECM). Results suggest the existence of two regimes a low and a high one. The high regime starts at the late nineties and is associated with a more flexible labor market. Under this regime, a 1% increase in GDP, reduces the UR 0.6 percentage points after eighteen quarters. By contrast, under the low regime the response is 0.2 percentage points after eight quarters.

fecha de publicación

  • 2018-02

Líneas de investigación

  • Co-integration
  • Nonlinearities
  • Okun´s Law

Identificador de objeto digital (DOI)

  • https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1039

Issue

  • 1039