Modeling the International Trade Network: A Gravity Approach

Serie

  • Papers

Resumen

  • This paper investigates whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on international-trade flows with a GM specification using alternative fitting techniques and we employ GM estimates to build a weighted predicted ITN, whose topological properties are compared to observed ones. Furthermore, we propose an estimation strategy to predict the binary ITN with a GM. We find that the GM successfully replicates the weighted-network structure of the ITN, only if one fixes its binary architecture equal to the observed one. Conversely, the GM performs very badly when asked to predict the presence of a link, or the level of the trade flow it carries, whenever the binary structure must be simultaneously estimated.

fecha de publicación

  • 2011-12

Líneas de investigación

  • Econophysics
  • Gravity Equation
  • International Trade Network
  • Topological Properties
  • Weighted Network Analysis

Issue

  • 11.122.867